Autumn Reset
While the first quarter of 2024 could be best described as patchy from a rainfall perspective, the second quarter has started with a bang, or more precisely, a deluge. With hopes that damage from flooding will be kept to a minimum, many regions are now set for a favorable few months, provided pastures and crops kick away. The recent rain has kicked the EYCI back over 610c, with strong demand through the recent annual weaner sales.

Seems like all the fundamentals are falling into place.
While the past few months have seen many industry pundits rebooting their crystal balls, the fundamentals appear to be falling into place.

1. The slowly rising supply of beef is being capably absorbed through export markets – namely the US, with prices into the North America favorable.
   
   
2. The equilibrium between turnoff and herd growth appears to be finely balanced. The continuation of the northern rebuild, with a southern herd plateau, is likely to see herd numbers steady into the second half of 2024. This largely leaves turnoff rates as forecast.
   
   
3. In previous years, the past two weeks of rain would have seen the young cattle market “go vertical”. Is it producer cageyness, larger herd numbers, or higher operational expenses that has tempered market responses? In my opinion, I think it is producer cageyness…if there is one thing livestock producers remember more than record high prices, its being wedged in a cheaper market with expensive cattle (see the second half of 2023).
   
   
4. While April is normally a holiday disrupted month for processors, slaughter levels have been consistently higher so far in 2024. A key figure to watch in the coming weeks will be the early May throughput - as processors hit full stride and producers look to balance on-farm numbers heading into winter.

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