Five weeks ago in the July edition of UNBOXED, I gave my predictions for where the cattle market might be into late 2024. As per the three main assumptions given, the seasonal forecast throughout August has been enhanced, while export demand continues to flourish. These positive improvements would lead me to tweak my price forecasts higher – see below. With a general economic slow-down the main concern on the beef demand front into late 2024, current pundits continue to see a positive path – even with the odd-doomsdayer capturing occasional headlines.

Prediction 1 - The EYCI will exceed 825c at some stage in October or November.

Prediction 2 - Heavy cattle and cows will become tight on the back of a good spring, with a 35% upside to prices (from the winter low) in the final quarter of the year.

Prediction 3 - Herd expansion intentions will be considered by some producers into 2025, but taking care of debts will continue to be a priority.


August Wrap

• After a comparatively wet finish to winter, many eastern states producers seem very keen for spring conditions to kick into gear – which will both accentuate pasture growth and cattle prices. While acknowledging that there are still some regions that have had a dry winter and need further falls, many of the key breeding regions through the eastern states are reportedly ready for a bumper spring. Rainfall forecasts through to summer look average, too slightly above average, which should give producers further confidence into 2025.
  
  
• Robust interest in the early bull sales and enticing returns for suitable breeding stock in late winter points to a much better pricing arena through the final months of 2024 – especially when compared to the “very disappointing” market in 2023. If previous wet winters into bumper springs are used as a gauge, young cattle demand will surge through to at least November (see above forecasts), while those flush with feed will aim to take full advantage in the paddock.

• Processor demand and the flow-through to the consumer, both local and overseas, seem to be steady-as-she-goes. Export volumes should give producers confidence that there are no great impediments to the supply chain – which will underpin the demand for cattle into the back end of 2024.